[ProgSoc] Predict Sydney traffic?

James Ducker jducker at it.uts.edu.au
Fri Dec 3 00:37:38 EST 2010


This seems boring. The M4 is a fairly contained system, most of the
influences on traffic flow will end up being external (i.e. maybe a 40 zone
throught the CCT staggers the flow of traffic down Parramatta Road, which
eases congestion on the Motorway). Then again, modelling the probability of
a traffic accident and estimating response times/congestion clearing times
for any given time of day and weather pattern might be pretty useful :)

- James

On 3 December 2010 00:17, marauder <marauder at marauder.net.au> wrote:

> Le 02/12/2010 à 9:55 PM, John Elliot a écrit :
>
> > In broad strokes how would you go about solving a problem like this?
>
> It probably won't win you any prizes in this competition, but the first
> hammer to hit that nail with is ARIMA.  The Wikipedia article on ARIMA is
> pretty rubbish but their article on Box-Jenkins [
> https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Box-Jenkins] is a decent
> summary of what's involved in making forecasts of something given only
> previous measurements of that thing.
>
> More generally we say that time series are made up of four kinds of thing
> stacked on top of each other: trends, cycles, seasonality, and irregular
> movements. Easiest to define by example, consider monthly financial data.
>  The trend is the long-term progression of the thing, not cyclical, emerging
> over periods like 15 years.  Seasonality is the monthly fluctuations that
> recur every year: big Xmas, January slump, etc.  Cycles are repeated
> fluctuations that aren't seasonal or regular and emerge over periods like
> 2--5 years.  Irregular movements are point events that have temporary or
> permanent effects on the cycle: pulses, step changes, etc.  You detect them
> to get rid of them, then fit curves to the trend, seasonality, and cycles so
> you can extrapolate.
>
> Your next move is to get extra data such as weather that might have a
> causal relationship with your time series.  ARIMA can take that into account
> too.
>
> -marauder
>
>
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-- 
James Ducker
Web Developer
http://www.studioj.net.au
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