[ProgSoc] Predict Sydney traffic?

John Elliot jj5 at jj5.net
Fri Dec 3 05:02:40 EST 2010


On 3/12/2010 12:17 AM, marauder wrote:
> Le 02/12/2010 à 9:55 PM, John Elliot a écrit :
>> In broad strokes how would you go about solving a problem like this?
>
> It probably won't win you any prizes in this competition, but the first hammer to hit that nail with is ARIMA.  The Wikipedia article on ARIMA is pretty rubbish but their article on Box-Jenkins [https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Box-Jenkins] is a decent summary of what's involved in making forecasts of something given only previous measurements of that thing.

Implementing anything based on that explanation alone is beyond me. 
However, I am interested in learning about how to do this 
data-processing from first principles. I've started a C# project that 
parses, represents and displays the historical data (available here 
[1]), but I'm not really sure what the next step is.

If ARIMA won't win any prizes in the competition, what would?

[1] http://www.progsoc.org/~jselliot/rta-m4/rta-m4-2010-12-03-043200.zip












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